How we got here and what comes next
Every day that passes seems to bring new reports and added wrinkles to the already convoluted trade negotiations currently ongoing between the Miami Heat and both the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. The simultaneous-yet-separate trade talks centered around Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell, having now spanned nearly a month, have led to Heat fans riding an emotional rollercoaster with every new tidbit that comes out.
The Heat are notably the only team mentioned as a suitor for both Mitchell and Durant. It seems Pat Riley is playing the numbers game; being among the finalists in both of these negotiations increases the odds of landing one of them.
On the Durant front, it would appear the Heat are in a good position. As the current betting favorite to land the superstar should he be traded (+325), Miami is the only team left standing from Durant’s original wish list of preferred destinations.
And while it was originally thought that Durant would command a huge haul in return, his trade market appears to be rather lukewarm. This could be due to his age and injury history, the presumption that Durant would only be a happy camper if traded to one of his preferred teams, or the fact that there’s another whale out there for the taking – the 8-years-younger Mitchell.
At this point the Nets may simply decide to hold onto Durant, at least until his trade market livens up. It remains to be seen, however, if the Nets want this clown show – which could also include shipping Kyrie Irving out of town – bleeding into the season.
As for Mitchell, it would seem Miami has an uphill climb to put together a viable trade package. At one point last week it was reported that Utah was “focused” on the Knicks as a trade partner, but since then it appears the two sides have been unable to agree on a framework for a deal.
According to Knicks reporter Ian Begley, one of Utah’s early propositions to New York was sending G RJ Barrett, C Mitchell Robinson (before he signed his new contract, removing him from trade eligibility), and at least three first round picks in exchange for Mitchell. If this was actually a haul that intrigued Danny Ainge and the rest of the Jazz front office, it would be hard to imagine that a package from Miami centered around G Tyler Herro, F Duncan Robinson, plus three future draft picks would be far behind in terms of value.
Much has been made about recent reports that teams may not view Herro as a valuable asset in a trade because he is extension eligible and will likely be seeking a new contract north of $20 million per year. While there is a conversation to be had about if Herro’s play warrants that kind of money and whether the majority of NBA general managers would prefer Barrett of the two, we know there's at least one fan of Herro's in the Utah front office; it’s become known that there was an audible groan heard from the Ainge-led Celtics war room during the 2019 NBA draft when it was announced that the Heat had drafted Herro just before the Celtics were on the clock. This could be Ainge's chance to secure the one that got away.
New York ultimately found the asking price too hefty and have signaled that they are uninterested in moving Barrett at this time. More recent reporting has suggested that Utah prefers taking in draft compensation over players in a trade. Another rumored trade demand from Utah had them asking New York to cough up six of their eight tradable first round picks plus a handful of young players not named Barrett; the Knicks again balked at the asking price.
Normally, asking for that many picks would surely lead to white-collared fisticuffs. Even the most draft pick-heavy trades in recent memory didn’t include 6 first rounders. However, Ainge actually has a basis for this request: just a few weeks ago the Minnesota Timberwolves ponied up four first round picks – plus the player they chose in the first round of last month’s draft and an additional future pick swap – to Utah for their second-most valuable player Rudy Gobert. The Timberwolves may have gotten their guy, but they certainly muddied up the trade market for everyone else. If the Jazz stand firm on their demands for several draft picks, Miami may be priced out of the race for Mitchell.
The Heat have reportedly reached out to other teams in an effort to secure additional draft picks beyond the two they can technically send currently to Brooklyn or Utah. Miami has almost certainly been in contact with the Oklahoma City Thunder; Miami owes a conditional 2025 first round pick to the Thunder that could convey in 2026. The uncertainty of when the pick will be delivered prevents Miami from being able to trade its 2027 first rounder thanks to the Stepien Rule. The general belief is that Miami has already reached an understanding with Oklahoma City on what it would take to amend the protections on the 2025 pick, allowing Miami to then offer three picks.
There have been rumors that teams with available cap space (like Indiana and San Antonio) or teams interested in some of the Heat’s role players (Dallas and Detroit have been mentioned) are open to joining a trade if they feel it benefits them. Names brought up as potential trade chips to help grease the wheels of a deal include Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent. Teams reportedly view the latter two as having similar values to late first round picks due to their current production and their minimum contract price point.
If Miami were to pull off one of these trades, it’ll likely include several teams and many Heat players wearing new jerseys next season. But this wouldn't be Pat Riley’s first mega-trade; lest we forget when he masterminded the then-largest trade in NBA history in 2005 that had 13 players switching teams and the Heat hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy the following season.
Many team executives around the league tend to go on vacation around this time of year before the grind of the new season kicks off, so we may not see resolution to these situations for some time. Also keep in mind that Miami's recently-drafted Nikola Jovic becomes trade-eligible on August 1.
How We Got Here:
This ride kicked off after Durant demanded a trade from the Nets just before the NBA draft and listed Miami and Phoenix on his wish list. However, it seemed like the Suns were in the driver’s seat in nabbing the star forward based on their ability to use a DeAndre Ayton sign-and-trade to add value in a deal.
Just as Heat fans came to grips with the idea of running it back with the same squad next year, news broke of Utah's willingness to deal Mitchell – and New York and Miami were immediately listed as frontrunners. After some time (and tons of trips to the trade machine), it looked like Miami wouldn't be able to match New York's draft compensation in a Mitchell trade.
DeAndre Ayton then signed an offer sheet with the Pacers, which was immediately matched by the Suns, but meant the team wouldn't be able to trade the big man this offseason. This move essentially left Phoenix without the necessary assets to put forth a competitive offer for Durant. This breathed newfound life into Durant-to-Miami possibilities.
And most recently, it’s been reported that New York has found Utah’s demands for Mitchell, to this point, to be too expensive. While New York remains the betting favorites in the Mitchell sweepstakes (-200), the door has been left a crack open for another team (perhaps the southernmost team in the NBA?) to sneak in and make a play for the All-Star guard.
Let us know in the comment section below if you think trading for one of these stars is worth it.
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