Exploring the decision Miami has to make at the most important position
Nearly all of the Dolphins offseason discourse entering the 2023 season surrounded the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The general consensus seemed to be that the team would succeed if he remained healthy, but that it would also be difficult to trust him to do so after the multiple concussions he sustained last season.
The good news is that Tua was able to play in every game this season; whether it was his jiu-jitsu training or the team’s enhanced focus on protecting him, Tua was able to put that major concern to bed – at least for this season.
The bad news is that the team will need decide sooner or later if they are going to pay him, and doing so would put a strain on the team’s salary cap for years to come, making it more difficult to sign or retain stars around him. Tua is set to play out his final year of his rookie contract next season, and while the team could punt on the decision and simply franchise tag him after his contract expires, that is not generally how quarterback contracts are handled – especially if the team wants to exude confidence in their QB.
All four of the largest contracts in NFL history by average annual value (AAV) were handed out last offseason, and three of those went to quarterbacks that were in Tua’s draft class – Joe Burrow ($55M AAV), Justin Herbert ($52.5M AAV), and Jalen Hurts ($51M AAV). The question that Mike McDaniel, Chris Grier, and the rest of the Dolphins brass will have to answer is: Has Tua’s body of work warranted such a contract?
That question is difficult to answer in absolutes. There have been high highs, such as his league-leading 4,624 passing yards this season, but the lows have been equally as low, averaging only 233 yards and just over 1 touchdown per game against playoff-caliber opponents this season, along with the extensive injury history.
In his first career playoff game Saturday night, Tua finished with a 51% completion percentage and 199 yards passing (down to just 146 yards if you take away the one semi-lucky explosive play to Tyreek Hill for the team’s only touchdown). Those numbers will simply not cut it in the NFL playoffs.
It would be easy to say that Tua has been good, but not good enough to commit to long-term thus far. The problem with trying to move on from a quarterback is always the lack of suitable replacements. Not to mention that The current offense was constructed around Tua's skillset, and would need to be re-worked if another QB were brought into the fold. QBs that could be available this offseason include Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, old pal Ryan Tannehill, or any draft prospects that are available with the 21st pick.
Cousins and Tannehill are much older and wouldn't be more than a stop-gap until the next franchise QB arrives. Justin Fields is intriguing due to his ability to use his legs, but he is clearly inferior to Tua in other aspects of the position, including accuracy, timing and anticipation. And hoping that a late-first-round rookie can step in as the savior is a very risky endeavor.
GM Chris Grier stated in his end-of-season press conference that signing Tua to a long-term extension would be a priority of his this offseason, so it will be interesting to see if he is willing to give Tua the money and years that his fellow 2020 draft peers received, or if Grier will attempt to negotiate the figures down due to the aforementioned shortcomings.
There could be a middle ground in contract negotiations where a reasonable deal is hammered out that both provides Tua with future financial security, while the team does not overpay and maintains a level of flexibility in the books. Something close to the deal Daniel Jones got last offseason ($40M AAV) or perhaps an incentive-heavy deal could thread the needle here, but it remains to be seen if Tua would be open to those sorts of offers.
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