How Miami’s offense can go from good to great next season.
Miami’s offense made major strides this past season, and the group showed flashes of what they could be capable of after another offseason of continuity in Mike McDaniel's system.
However, the team won’t be able to throw around huge contracts to continue improving the roster like they did last offseason when they lured Terron Armstead to Miami. They will have to deliberate with where and how they spend their newfound cap room (as outlined in part 1).
Miami will also have plenty of decisions to make when it comes to keeping their own players that are set to become free agents.
To further complicate matters, the Dolphins don’t have much draft capital to play with this year after the league stole – er – confiscated Miami’s first round pick as a result of the Tom Brady tampering investigation. But that doesn’t mean the Dolphins won’t still look to add young talent through the draft or thereafter.
The team still holds a second-round selection, a pair of third rounders, a spot in the sixth, and a pick in the seventh round. They can also add more via trades. Dating back to 2016 when Chris Grier took over general manager duties in Miami, the Dolphins have been rather successful drafting in the second round, with the likes of Jevon Holland, Robert Hunt, Mike Gesicki and Xavien Howard all being plucked in round two.
Even with salary cap and draft pick obstacles, there are still avenues to significantly improve the offense.
Here's a position-by-position breakdown of what the offense could realistically look like next year:
*Players listed in bold below are those not currently under contract with Miami [free agent signings, re-signings, draft picks, etc.]
Quarterback:
Tua Tagovailoa is going to be Miami’s starting QB in 2023. That’s it, that’s the sentence.
There are no other feasible options available that would definitively make Miami better now or in the future, and there haven’t been any rumblings from either team nor player that the marriage between Tagovailoa and the Dolphins won’t at least continue for another year.
Players like Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers at this stage of their careers likely wouldn’t be much of an upgrade on the field, and also wouldn’t offer a long-term solution at QB.
Lamar Jackson likely isn’t leaving Baltimore – at least not this offseason – and comes with lofty contract demands as well as injury concerns. Whether fans like it or not, Tagovailoa is the clear best option for Miami in 2023.
The biggest QB question mark for Miami this offseason is figuring out who the primary backup will be. In a perfect world, free agent Jimmy Garoppolo would be willing to reunite with McDaniel in South Florida in a backup capacity. Garoppolo knows the offense and would be able to step in and keep the offense flowing, like Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson weren't able to do last season.
However, Garoppolo is gaining interest from teams in need of a starting quarterback, such as the New York Jets. The only way Miami would have a shot at bringing him in as a backup (which would mean taking a discount) would be if all of his suitors were to settle on other options at QB. That way, there wouldn’t be financial competition for his services.
That would be unlikely, though, and Garoppolo will probably get an opportunity to start for a team next season. More likely options would include Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Nick Mullens, or bringing back Bridgewater. Mariota could be a real option due to his ability to make plays with his legs, but of this grouping, Mullens may be the most intriguing. He played in 19 games in McDaniel’s 49er offense between 2018 and 2020 and had moderate success with 25 touchdowns, nearly 250 yards per game, and a passer rating of 87.2. His familiarity with the system and bargain basement asking price makes him a desirable option.
In the draft, the Dolphins could take a late-round flyer on a project QB like Holton Ahlers out of East Carolina. He’s a big, accurate passer that also happens to be left-handed like Tagovailoa. That way, in case of emergency, not much would need to change in the way the offense operates. However, with Thompson still on the squad after gaining a full season of experience under his belt, it’s likely he’ll remain the team’s emergency QB.
Projected position group:
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Nick Mullens, Skylar Thompson
Running Back:
The Dolphins do not currently have a single halfback under contract for the 2023 season. With such a clean slate, the team is flexible to fill the position as they desire – through trades, free agency, re-signings, and the draft. However, it would be unlikely to see the team invest significant resources in the position.
Both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson have gushed about McDaniel and the offensive system, and both could return if the price is right. Remember, Miami traded a fifth-round pick for Wilson’s services last season.
The most financially efficient way to round out the running back room would be to nab one in the draft. We’ve seen several rookie running backs burst onto the scene in recent years and there are plenty of potential star backs to be found in the middle rounds of April’s draft.
Zach Charbonnet of UCLA, Tank Bigsby of Auburn, Sean Tucker of Syracuse, Kenny McIntosh of Georgia, and Tyjae Spears of Tulane all seem like promising runners with the tools needed to succeed in the Dolphins offense. It will come down to which running back can impress Miami’s coaching staff enough on film or in private workouts to warrant drafting.
Alec Ingold will return as one of the better fullbacks in the league.
Projected position group:
HB: Tyjae Spears, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson
FB: Alec Ingold
Receivers:
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. The dynamic duo will look to build upon their phenomenal 2022 season in which they gobbled up over half of the team’s catches and nearly two-thirds of the team’s receiving yards. As long as both remain healthy, they’ll be in the conversation for the best WR duo in the league.
Trent Sherfield and River Cracraft – both free agents – played well enough to warrant a return in reserve roles next year. They each hauled in two receiving touchdowns last season.
Erik Ezukanma and Braylon Sanders did not see much action in their first years as a pro, but fans saw flashes of their potential during the preseason. Both will hope to earn a larger role heading into the next season.
Cedric Wilson has thus far not lived up to the contract Miami gave him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the team look to trade him for additional draft picks.
With Mike Gesicki very likely departing this offseason, the team will need to search for a starting-caliber tight end. The key will be finding a skilled run blocker at the position that is also a capable receiver; the reason Gesicki is expendable is largely due to his poor blocking ability. McDaniel prefers a strong blocking presence at TE to prevent the defense from predicting the play call based on the personnel on the field.
Like running back, the tight end position may be best filled through the draft. Not only are the top free agent tight ends coming with a hefty price tag, not many are considered reliable blockers. Enter 2023 draft prospect Darnell Washington.
At 6'7, 270, this mountain of a man has been described as being a sixth offensive lineman on the field; his blocking prowess would allow him to immediately fit into what McDaniel wants to do on offense. He’s been buried behind better receiving tight ends at Georgia but has also shown to be useful in the passing game when given the opportunity. Had he played in a different program, he likely would've been able to show off more of his game – but that might allow him to fall right into the Dolphins’ range.
Durham Smythe has been a solid backup TE for years, and Hunter Long will try once again to earn playing time after a disappointing first two seasons.
Projected position group:
WR1: Tyreek Hill, Trent Sherfield, Erik Ezukanma
WR2: Jaylen Waddle, River Cracraft, Braylon Sanders
TE: Darnell Washington, Durham Smythe, Hunter Long
Offensive Line:
This is where the team may look to spend a good amount of money on reinforcements.
Last season saw the Miami offensive line decimated by injuries and inconsistent play. In an effort to add a veteran presence while also better protecting the QB, Miami will certainly take a look at offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey.
A former top-10 draft pick, McGlinchey would immediately provide a steadying presence at right tackle, where there has been plenty of uncertainty in recent years, and tag team with right guard Robert Hunt to protect Tagovailoa’s blind side. He played in all 17 games last season with the 49ers and already knows the intricacies of McDaniel's scheme. He has an estimated market value of around $15 million annually, per both PFF and Spotrac.
Armstead, Hunt and Connor Williams are all good-to-great starters that will look to build continuity this offseason. Brandon Shell performed well as an injury fill-in and Miami would be wise to keep him around.
Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson and Robert Jones are all young and have flashed at times, but have been extremely inconsistent. They would be best suited as depth on the line, but there could still be an opportunity for one or two of them to compete for another shot at starting next year depending on the team’s moves.
If the Dolphins do make a splash at tackle in free agency, they could then look to the draft to add a young, inexpensive interior lineman for added depth that could also push for a starting spot in training camp. Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz, Wisconsin’s Joe Tippmann, Notre Dame’s Jarrett Patterson, USC’s Andrew Vorheese and Michigan’s Olu Oluwatimi are all solid guard/centers that should be available on days two or three of the upcoming draft.
Projected position group:
LT: Terron Armstead, Brandon Shell
LG: Liam Eichenberg, Andrew Vorheese
C: Connor Williams
RG: Robert Hunt, Robert Jones
RT: Mike McGlinchey, Austin Jackson
The backbone of the offense is already in place with two of the fastest wide receivers in the NFL, a quick-thinking QB, and an anchor on the left side of the offensive line. The team finished 6th in the league in total offense last season – the best mark by the Dolphins since the mid-90s. With just a sprinkling of added talent in specific areas, Miami’s offense will have their eyes set on breaking into the top five next year.
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