How the Dolphins can go from salary cap hell to being real players in free agency with three simple steps.
While the season didn’t end exactly as the Dolphins would have liked, there were plenty of developments over the course of 18 games for the coaches and players to appreciate, learn from, and build upon going into year two of the Mike McDaniel regime. Miami has their quarterback of the future (hopefully) in Tua Tagovailoa and a roster that is more complete than any in recent memory. But there is still plenty of room for improvement.
In recent years we have seen teams swing for the fences while they have their quarterbacks still on rookie contracts by spending big at other positions. Just last offseason the Dolphins, Bengals and Chargers all loaded up with talent in hopes of making deep playoff runs. Once these teams must pay their young QBs, that roster flexibility disappears, and they’ll be forced to go bargain hunting for talent thereafter.
However, entering this offseason $16.3 million over the salary cap, the Dolphins face an uphill battle to improving their roster. The team will have to shed a significant amount of salary just to have enough money to sign the draft picks they currently hold in April’s draft.
But based on how aggressive Miami’s front office has been over the past 12 months – which includes making Tyreek Hill the most expensive wide receiver in league history, trading a first round pick for Bradley Chubb mid-season, and just recently making Vic Fangio the richest coordinator in the NFL – it would be difficult to see the team being complacent with a middle-of-the-pack finish and stopping there. We could see several additional moves to free up substantial cap space that would allow Miami to make offseason splashes yet again.
Here is how Miami can (responsibly) remain aggressive this offseason:
Step one: Restructure the contracts of Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Bradley Chubb.
Look for the Dolphins to work on renegotiating the three biggest contracts they handed out in 2022. Re-doing this trio of deals could save up to $46.2 million according to OverTheCap.com, which would give the team some much needed breathing room with regard to the cap.
These moves would push a fair amount of salary into future years, so they’ll want to tread carefully. But considering these are cornerstones of the roster that will likely be in Miami for the duration of their contracts, it is a pill possibly worth swallowing.
The Dolphins could also look at restructuring Emmanuel Ogbah’s contract, but after a disappointing 2022, it may be risky pushing more guaranteed salary of his into future seasons. As things currently stand, the team would have an easy out from his contract next offseason should he have another down year.
Step two: Find trade partners for Cedric Wilson and Noah Igbinoghene; cut Cethan Carter.
These three transactions would generate an additional $10.4 million of cap space. The moves may seem small relative to other moves the team may make but would give Miami added flexibility to be competitive heading into free agency.
The hope is that a team with a need at wide receiver would be willing to part with an early day-three draft pick for Wilson – a fourth or fifth rounder would be useful.
None of Carter’s contract this season is guaranteed, and his $2.3 million cap hit would seem excessive for a backup tight end/H-back that exclusively plays special teams and missed the entire 2022 season due to injury.
After completing these first two steps, Miami would have roughly $40 million to play with in free agency.
Step three: Find trade partners for Byron Jones and Jerome Baker after June 1.
These two moves wouldn't make much fiscal sense until after June 1st, because trading or cutting Baker and Jones prior to the first of June would result in much lower cap relief this year.
There will be plenty of conversation among Miami’s brain trust over the coming months to determine if it is worth keeping Jones with the new defensive system due to be installed this offseason, versus replacing him with a cheaper option that is already familiar with the scheme.
Jones won't be easy to flip. Considering his bloated $18.3 million cap hit next season and zero games played in 2022 due to a mysterious leg injury, Miami would be lucky to find a CB-needy team desperate enough to give up anything of value for the former star cornerback; a seventh-round draft pick would likely suffice. Should Miami fail to find a trade partner for Jones, however, the team can cut him and still enjoy the same cap relief.
Baker, on the other hand, likely still holds some value on the trade market. Considering his production (100 tackles in 2022) and reasonable contract ($12 million on the books next season), the Dolphins may be able to squeeze a 2024 mid-round draft pick out of trading him.
These trades won’t be clean breaks, however; there will be a good amount of dead money left behind that the team will have to eat over the next two seasons. But having an additional $22.6 million in cap space will allow the Dolphins to bring in several lower-cost additions to fill out the roster, or even offer extensions to current players like Zach Seiler.
(Some have suggested that extending Christian Wilkins or Connor Williams this offseason could also save the team money, but that would only be the case if the players’ new 2023 cap hits end up lower than what they are currently allocated.)
Now, would it be wise or even advisable to collect so much dead money to deal with in future years?
Probably not.
However, based on OverTheCap’s projections, these moves should keep Miami’s 2024 cap situation above water – as in, not in the negatives – though a significant chunk of their cap space will have been eaten into. But there would still be avenues to cutting salary next offseason if needed, and a majority of Miami’s cornerstones are already secured under contract for the foreseeable future.
And this could be the last offseason Miami has the ability to throw money around and make big moves depending on how they handle Tagovailoa's contract extension in the future.
All told, the above transactions could save the Dolphins nearly $80 million, giving them over $60 million to use throughout the offseason with hopes of putting themselves in prime position to make a run at the Super Bowl next year.
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