Examining how Miami stacks up heading into a playoff matchup in Buffalo
After a regular season that epitomized the nauseating peaks and drops of a death-defying rollercoaster, the Miami Dolphins limped into the NFL playoffs with an underwhelming 11-6 win over the New York Jets. While the players on the field seemed excited at the opportunity to continue playing in the postseason, many fans shrugged at the notion of going up against one of the strongest teams in the league – the Buffalo Bills – this upcoming Sunday.
Yes, fans should be grateful when their team makes it to the playoffs (which does not occur often for this franchise), but can you blame them for not being overly excited to watch this patchwork group of injury fill-ins enter what in all likelihood will be a slaughtering of porpoises on Sunday?
As we all know, anything can happen in the NFL; we’ve seen major upsets in the past, especially in the playoffs. And, to the Dolphins’ credit, they’ve already beaten the Bills once this season; the 21-19 September victory was one of the early highlights of Miami’s season.
But many things have changed since then. Not only have the Bills seemingly gelled as a unit and gotten stronger as the season has gone on, the Dolphins have gone in the opposite direction, primarily due to losing several key players to injury.
THE OBSTACLES
Heading into Sunday’s matchup, the Dolphins are confirmed or expected to be without starters at running back, left tackle, right tackle, left guard, safety, and most notably, quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa is still dealing with symptoms from the concussion he sustained against the Packers on Christmas Day and hasn’t yet cleared the league’s concussion protocols in order to return to the practice field. It’s unclear if he’d be able to play at all this postseason, even if Miami were to advance.
After a year in which he spent several weeks in the MVP conversation, not having Tua available heading into the most important matchup of the season is obviously a heavy blow. Reserves Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson (the likely starter in Buffalo) have done little to inspire confidence from fans.
Among games that Tua started and finished, the Dolphins put together an 8-4 record – albeit all four of those losses came in the midst of a late-season losing streak where the offense appeared to be stuck in the mud at times. Even considering the end-of-season downturn, the offense generated over 26 points per game in those 12 contests, good enough for 7th in the league.
In the other five games where Tua either didn’t play or left early due to injury, the team went 1-4 and the offense was hard to watch. The team averaged an abysmal 16 points per game without their starting QB, which would’ve been a league-worst mark.
THE GAMEPLAN
So what would it take for the Dolphins to pull this one out and advance to the next round of the playoffs?
To answer this, one would need to take a ride in a time machine back to a time when the NFL was a very different game; a time when defenses ruled and strong run games dominated the clock.
If Miami is able to control the clock through successfully running the ball from beginning to end, they’ll put themselves – and their young quarterback – in the best position to succeed. In starting a 7th round rookie QB, the most coaches can ask or hope from Skylar would be to manage the game efficiently, make a few good throws on key downs, and not turn the ball over. This would allow the run game to take center stage.
The problem? The Dolphins have yet to showcase an ability (or willingness) to ride the run game throughout an entire game. And that will be even harder to accomplish without starting RB Raheem Mostert, who is out with a broken thumb. Mostert performed exceptionally well in the last meeting between these two teams, gashing the Bills defense with several big runs including a 67-yard angry run that also happened to be Miami’s biggest run play of the season by a mile. The Dolphins will be relying on Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed to provide a burst in the ground game.
Furthermore, the defense will have to be at the absolute top of their game going against the well-oiled machine on the other side orchestrated by All-Pro QB Josh Allen.
Miami’s defense enters the matchup bottom 10 in the league in terms of points allowed. The unit failed to deliver on offseason promises to build upon their strong showing in 2021. The blockbuster mid-season trade to bring in Bradley Chubb in hopes of rejuvenating the struggling unit culminated in a grand total of just 2.5 sacks in his 8 games with the team. While he and fellow pass rusher Jaelan Phillips routinely applied pressure on opposing quarterbacks, it has not translated to high sack numbers due to the inability of Miami’s injury-riddled secondary to maintain coverage on opposing receivers down the field.
The good news, though, is that the Dolphins defense has been able to keep both matchups against Buffalo this season close – something that has not been the case in years past – which included sacking Allen six times.
While Allen has exceptional arm talent and the ability to run as effectively as any QB in the league, he has been known to be careless with the ball at times, lending defenses opportunities for turnovers. Forcing turnovers would be the clearest way Miami’s defense could help the team succeed Sunday. The turnover battle will go a long way in giving Miami a chance.
THE WILDCARD
All that said, the Dolphins could have one advantage in their corner: desperation.
In a game where they are heavy underdogs, fighting for their first playoff win in over two decades, we can expect Head Coach Mike McDaniel to pull out all the stops in this one. I’m expecting trick plays, fake punts, and an emphasis on feeding playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Will it be enough to take down the kings of the AFC East?
Probably not.
As much as I would love to be the resident hope-trafficker for the Dolphins fan base this week, my longtime fandom of the franchise has taught me to never get my hopes too high – do this and you just may get pleasantly surprised, but never disappointed.
While we can hope for an exciting game, we’ve seen how this team operates for a full season now.
Can we expect the play calling to consistently emphasize the run game?
Can we envision Skylar suddenly turning into Brock Purdy or any other recent rookie sensation?
Can we trust the defense to stiffen up and turn the Bills over?
Unless at least two of the answers to these questions become ‘Yes’ by the end of the game Sunday, I think we’ll be spending the offseason wondering “what could’ve been” after such a promising start to the year.
This season feels more like Buffalo’s date with destiny than it does Miami’s. After last season’s heart-breaking loss to Kansas City in the playoffs and this season’s heart-wrenching loss of teammate Damar Hamlin, it seems as though the Bills will have plenty of motivation heading into the matchup, and this broken down Miami team – on paper – should be nothing more than a speed bump for them.
But hey, they still gotta play the game.
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