After an inauspicious 1-3 start to the NBA season, the Miami Heat are searching for answers. The team and their fans appear to be coming to the stark realization that simply copy-pasting the majority of last year's team and riding the wave of an Eastern Conference Finals run won't be enough to recreate the magic felt just five short months ago.
Many of the concerns voiced by Heat fans throughout the offseason have already reared their ugly heads. Some complaints, however, have proven to be exaggerated thus far.
For instance, many media talking heads, anonymous league sources, and even fans (this writer included) questioned Tyler Herro's ability to take his game to yet another level and be able to thrive in a starting role. With rumors swirling of available stars around the league, many were awaiting the notification that Herro had been shipped off for the next South Beach superstar.
Through the season's first four games, however, Herro has appeared to be the Heat's most consistent player -- at least on the offensive end. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he ultimately leads the team in scoring this year. To his credit, Herro looks very much the part and has shown that he is more than just an asset you flip for a star.
But as good as Herro has looked, the team has noticeably struggled on both sides of the ball. The normally-gritty defense has been out of sorts at times, the offense has looked clunky for long stretches of games, and the rebounding has fallen off a cliff; the Heat slipped from 9th in rebound percentage last season to 21st so far this year.
Some players have attributed the early struggles to a lack of urgency, which is to say the team isn't playing with the energy or chemistry they've become accustomed to. While that could be part of the problem -- and can be concerning if it continues -- the bigger issues appear to be personnel-related.
Fans brushed off the loss of PJ Tucker to the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason, but losing a consummate professional and glue guy like Tucker will never be easy for a team with championship aspirations. Heat President Pat Riley went out of his way to flatter Tucker during his post-season presser, stopping just short of begging him to stay.
While 7.6 points and 5.5 rebounds per game do not jump off the stat sheet, Heat coach Eric Spoelstra has explained many times that the things Tucker added to the team could hardly be quantified by numbers. Tucker's leadership, communication, and defensive tenacity added a layer to last year's Heat team that it had been lacking the year prior. Tucker produced the second highest Net Rating while on the floor last season of any Heat player with 6.2 (Adebayo was first with 8.1), and the Heat ranked 6th in overall Net Rating in the league. This year's Heat team, for reference, is at -5.1 collectively through the first four games, good enough for 23rd overall.
The Heat are now left trying to patch the hole left by Tucker with a hodgepodge of smaller, out-of-position players.
Last season, Caleb Martin was a phenomenal success story for the Heat's development program. In just one season's time, he became a promising contributor at the end of the bench of a contending team. Everything he was able to provide was gravy because the rest of the rotation was rock solid. Now the Heat are forced to rely heavily on Martin, a 6'5 natural wing player, who's currently plugged in as the team's starting power forward.
Other options behind Martin include the undersized and still developing Haywood Highsmith, and possibly 6'11 rookie Nikola Jovic. We have yet to see Jovic in game action, but he's long enough to fit the part and looks to be a very solid offensive weapon. The concern with Jovic is on the defensive end; he has no prior experience playing the power forward or center position, and his wiry frame could lead to some early struggles against stronger opponents.
And if center Bam Adebayo were to get into foul trouble (like we've already seen this season), the Heat would be forced to go extended stretches in a game without a switchable big on the floor, effectively stifling Spoelstra's desired defensive philosophy.
Tucker is not the tallest guy himself (also 6'5), but he is stocky in build and tough enough to hold his own against bigger opposition; something he likely developed during his years of playing center in Houston's small-ball lineup. He also shows great awareness in boxing out and always seems to be in the right spot on the court. These are all things the Heat seem to be missing at the moment.
Reports indicated Tucker was interested to return to Miami, and the team was willing to give the 37-year-old Tucker the three year contract he was looking for, but the sides reached an impasse when it came to the dollars and cents. Tucker (perhaps prematurely) learned that Philadelphia was willing to offer him their full mid-level exception, which came out to $33 million over three years. The Heat offered the taxpayer mid-level exception, coming out to $27 million over three seasons. (There is something to be said about the lack of state income taxes in Florida somewhat evening the playing field in terms of real cash value of the contracts, but that's a conversation for another day.)
The Heat could have matched the 76ers' full mid-level offer, but the key difference is that such a contract would hard-cap the Heat, making it much more tricky for the Heat to facilitate trades this season. This didn't deter Philadelphia, while Miami seemed to prioritize flexibility, and Tucker ultimately found himself a new home. So in the end, haggling over contract details lost the Heat a key cog in their starting lineup.
Stop me if you've heard this before.
Heat fans will remember just two seasons ago the team let Jae Crowder walk in similar fashion -- negotiating the third year of an extension.
Crowder and Tucker filled the same 3-and-D power forward role for the Heat -- sandwiched between Adebayo and Jimmy Butler in the lineup -- and both enjoyed career years from behind the arc in Miami. Because of their defensive acumen and ability to switch onto almost any opposing player, both allowed Miami's defense to flow much more freely.
It's no coincidence the Heat made deep playoff runs during the single seasons each of these two called Miami home. The Heat boasted the league's 8th best Net Rating after the All Star break in 2019-20 (when Crowder was on the team), compared to just 17th following his departure in 2020-21.
The irony in all of this is, following Tucker's exit, Miami reportedly looked into the possibility of trading for Crowder, who is now in his third season with Phoenix -- the same third year that Miami balked at offering him during contract negotiations.
One would have thought that, after losing Crowder and sitting through the Moe Harkless & Trevor Ariza experiment the following season, Riley and Co. would have learned their lesson.
This feels like a bird-in-the-hand conundrum; right now, without knowing what trades could happen later on in the season, I think I speak for the Heat community at large when I say bringing Tucker back should've been priority number one this offseason once it became clear none of the available stars would be coming to Miami. That sentiment could change if the team is able to pull off a blockbuster trade later, but losing Tucker was clearly a step in the wrong direction.
You can't fault Riley for failing to improve the team via trade this offseason; after all, he can't force another team to accept a deal or manifest the next disgruntled star that wants to be in Miami. But fans can rightfully gripe about the team's apparent indifference in bringing back vital role players that make what appear to be very reasonable contract demands.
The Heat will have to sort out this issue sooner than later if they hope to make another deep playoff run this season. Having Butler on the roster ensures the team will remain competitive, but the front office must put the proper pieces around him to get the best results, whether that comes through trade or finding the right combination of in-house pieces.
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