It’s been quite the first half from a drama perspective for this Miami Heat team, but from a basketball standpoint it has been a very underwhelming, underachieving first half of the season. Tyler Herro said at his All-Star presser: “If we’re going to call a spade a spade, we are not contenders right now.” He went on to say that with the young guys contributions (Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware) will help Miami steer the ship in the right direction as they continue to develop and improve their continuity. Along with the newly acquired Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and Davion Mitchell, who are still adjusting from the recent trade, Miami needed this All-Star break to retool and get guys more familiar with one another. Erik Spoelstra knows the team is not where they want to be but the break is going to be a great chance to learn from previous mistakes, develop team chemistry through practice and film.
The Heat enter their final 29 games of the season sitting at 25-28, 9th in the East, 0.5 games back from 7th seed, and 3 GB of the 6th seeded Detroit Pistons. The main question for Miami right now is, how can they get back to being competitive on a nightly basis? There’s numerous things this team needs to start going right for them but let’s start with the two cornerstones of the team: Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
Tyler Herro is fresh off his first All-Star appearance, scored 6 points (2-4 3pt), and also won the Starry 3PT Contest with a score of 24 in the final round. Boy Wonder has been a true bright spot for Miami this year averaging career-highs across the board. Since January 1st, Herro has scored seven 30+ point games including his most recent 40-point game against the Mavericks. He has been inefficient in his last 6 games scoring under 15 points in three of the last six, shooting 40.4% from the field and a gasping 23.3% from three. Bam Adebayo on the other hand has started to pick up his offensive production averaging 23.1 PPG, 10.9 REB, 4.8 AST on 55/39/77% shooting splits. Miami needs these guys to continue their production, lead by example, and get the other guys to follow through.
Speaking of the others, we can start with the new players acquired from the trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Warriors. Andrew Wiggins brings the veteran championship experience you need a player to have but his production has yet to follow averaging 12.5 PPG in 29.1% FG in his first two games. Kyle Anderson showed what he can bring to the team in Miami’s last game versus Dallas where he had 15 points and 10 rebounds, the effort on the glass is something Miami could really use. Finally, Davion Mitchell, he has started all three games averaging 7.6 PPG, 3.3 AST also 41% from the field but it’s his defensive tenacity and the drives to the rim along with the finishing ability that has Miami excited so far. These three are going to be very key to Miami’s pursuit of making the playoffs, they have to adjust to a new system quick, but they all three bring great energy to the team that Miami has needed for a couple of months now. But there are always improvements and progress to be made and that’s the case for the young guys.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has seen a major dip in every statistical category from his outstanding rookie year, his role has changed but the actions and moves that he makes have stayed the same. Shots are not falling, turnovers are piling up, but he stays resilient, defending at a high level, but his offense has to be better going into the last 29 games. Nikola Jovic’s progress has been very stagnant up to this point. He’s still having trouble defending without fouling in isolation. He still presents the same upsides offensively, but can get stuck in stand-and-shoot which isn’t always bad considering he shoots it at a 37% clip from three but it’s not something he can be completely comfortable with doing on a consistent basis. Getting him to attack when he gets the ball in transition, setting up plays, or even running a pick-and-roll is where Jovic can operate but he has to be more aggressive as well once the opportunities come. Kel’el Ware’s progression is also a major piece for Miami moving forward. Since Kel’el had that stretch where he scored 20+ points in three straight games he has taken a step back putting up 9.2 PPG, 9.3 REB, 1.4 AST, 1 BLK on 47.6% from the field and 31.8% from three. Ware’s defense in isolation is going to be something he will have to work on the most defensively but he’s been helpful on the defensive side along with Bam. Offensively he can score the ball but figuring out some post moves will help expand his game, he has missed his last nine shots from deep but his willingness to shoot without hesitation is still a positive for his development and adds that dynamic for the offense. All three of these guys have to be ready to take that leap if this team is going to have a shot to make the playoffs.
The veteran presence from the rest of the roster is going to be huge for the Heat as well. Kevin Love has done his part in keeping the vibes going regardless of what was going on throughout that first half on IG and the bench, he stays ready when his number is called just like Alec Burks. Burks has been receiving more consistent minutes as of late which he’s earned averaging 11.3 PPG, 6.8 REB, 1.3 STL, 46.7% FG and 45% 3PT. No matter what the situation is Alec has shown his unselfishness and he’s been doing his part to help this team’s three point shooting. Terry Rozier is shooting his worst splits since he was a Celtic but has had back-to-back 20-point games, which is a positive sign considering the way his first half of the season went. Duncan Robinson is also able to add the three point shooting depth but the inconsistency from game-to-game, like Terry, has seen his minutes decreasing. At least two of these veterans have to provide the spark Miami needs off the bench to help when Bam or Tyler go off the floor.
With the sixth easiest schedule remaining in the league the Heat have a lot of ground to make up if they are going to have a shot to make the playoffs, their offense is the focal point of their success, they rank 27th in PACE (97.39), 24th in PPG (109.8), 22nd in FG% (45.4%), T-13th in 3pt% (36%), and t-21st in OFFRTG (111.2). Defensively still top ten in OPPG (110.7), T-10th in OFG% (46.2%), a major drop off that Miami has experienced defensively is their lack of creating turnovers, they were top 10 in that through December but now rank 21st only creating 13.6 turnovers per game and 10th in DEFRTG (112.2). Miami will have to start collecting consecutive wins, executing better to close games and they cannot have more games where they only score single digits in a quarter. Lots of questions for this Heat team but the lone question remains, “Will they be more competitive moving forward?” We will soon have our answer.
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