1. Turnovers
The Miami Heat have been dominant over the Boston Celtics in their recent history when forcing turnovers. The Heat are 9-1 when they force 15+ turnovers against Boston in three of their last four meetings. The Heat were in the middle of the pack during the season in forcing their opponents into turnovers, and against the Celtics they only forced 11.7 per game in their three meetings. It is paramount to force the number one offensively rated team in the league into these mistakes that can be turned into "easy" fastbreak points.
2. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Miami’s Zone Defense
The Heat have had success in their recent playoff games against the Celtics when switching to their zone defense but this year Boston has been able to pick it apart, in large part to Kristaps Porzingis’s abilities as a three level scorer at the center position.
He has been able to get into the middle of the zone, take advantage of mismatches and bully his way through smaller defenders or pull up from the free throw area or park himself in the corner for a three-pointer. Miami will have to make better efforts to limit those entry passes as they did with Joel Embiid in their play-in game. Porzingis this year against Miami average 20.3/7.3/1.7 on 57/50/82% shooting.
3. Transition Offense
If the Heat are going to have any success against the Celtics, they will have to execute better in their transition offense. Miami was one of the worst fast break teams in the league this season and in both play-in games there were numerous failures in being able to cash easy points whether they were off turnovers or after an opposing bucket.
Nikola Jovic and Caleb Martin must be better in being under control while pushing pace. Nikola has had numerous turnovers after getting stripped while trying to get through multiple defenders and Caleb has to be more under control while attacking the rim, when he lowers his shoulder to draw contact. Others will have to take care of the ball pushing pace but overall Miami as a team can’t afford to miss on those easy opportunities.
4. Miami’s Perimeter Defense vs Boston’s 3-point Shooting
The Celtics shot 45.7% from the perimeter in the three meetings against the Heat this season. A large part of that was due to the Heat’s zone defense allowing wide open corner threes, sagging off of wing isolation threes, and second chance rebounds leading to open looks off those scrambled plays. Limiting Boston’s most reliable shot will make a difference in what they want to do and the Heat can force them into tougher looks. Delon Wright and Haywood Highsmith will be crucial.
5. Bench Play
The obvious answer could be Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo leading Miami and taking their games to the next level but if Miami is going to compete in these games, their bench has to show up in a big way. The numerous scoring droughts that were aided to by the limitations of role players cannot be happening against the Celtics team.
Each player who comes off the bench will be an X-Factor this series. Coming off a 16-point game in the play-in, Kevin Love has been one of the Heat's best players in recent weeks, his impact to be a three-level scorer and draw fouls will do wonders for the Heat's offense. Haywood Highsmith MUST hit his open three-pointers. Delon Wright has to continue is scrappy play that lead to steals and transition buckets, as well as hit his occasional open threes. Lastly, Duncan Robinson's two-man game with Bam Adebayo has to be on full display. We saw how important Duncan's three-point shooting has been this season, and do you remember who was a key factor to beating the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals last season?
It will be trouble for Miami if the bench doesn't have impactful minutes.
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