How Miami got here and where do we go next
While the national media copes with the fact that the 8-seed Miami Heat will be appearing in their second NBA Finals in four seasons, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is hard at work gearing the team up for game one Thursday night.
As improbable a run as this has been – especially after watching the Heat stumble through the regular season – most astute basketball fans weren’t completely caught off guard. This is the same Heat team that was the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, and one 3-point shot away from representing the East in the NBA Finals a year ago.
One of the main reasons Miami is in the Finals has been their 3-point shooting. After shooting just 34% in the regular season – the team’s worst mark since Jimmy Butler arrived in South Florida four years ago – Miami has turned on the heat in the playoffs, shooting at a 39% clip.
While shooting streaks can go hot and cold over the course of a season or playoff run, this hot shooting stretch is more akin to the Heat’s norm than their struggles in the regular season. Two of the previous three regular seasons saw Miami shoot 38% from 3.
JJ Redick, one of the more rational and knowledgeable NBA voices in the national media, said on a podcast that no one should be surprised about Miami’s resurgent 3-point shooting or their Finals run at large.
“A lot of what I’ve heard and even thought to myself at times is, ‘Oh, the Heat are getting by with flukey shooting,’” Redick said.
“Or,” he continues, “maybe, for roughly 80% of the season, they had a flukey shooting stretch where nearly everyone on their roster shot below their career averages from 3.”
Redick went on to say that, while he is shocked to see the Heat team he watched in the regular season make it to the NBA Finals, he is not surprised to see the Heat team that has shown up in these playoffs make it as far as they have.
While injuries and a lack of meaningful offseason additions would tell you this isn’t the best Heat team in recent memory, they are here; back in the NBA Finals. They have enough. And once you make it here, anything can happen.
As Charles Barkley has famously said, regardless of what the analytics or betting lines say, you have a 50% chance at winning; “You’re either going to win or lose.”.
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